中经联播3月31日巴黎讯 (马正江 魏勇）欧洲中央银行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德今日在法国公共电台节目中发出强烈信号，直指美国总统特朗普拟于4月3日生效的新一轮汽车关税政策将加速欧洲走向“经济独立”。她强调，这是欧洲必须“掌控自身命运”的时刻，贸易战只会导致两败俱伤。
拉加德指出，特朗普政府近期针对汽车、钢铝等关键行业加征25%关税的举措，正迫使欧洲在国防、能源、金融和数字技术等领域加速构建独立性。她将这一转变称为“欧洲时刻”，认为关税争端已敲响警钟，激发欧洲团结与战略自主的紧迫性。
根据欧洲央行测算，若美国关税政策落地，欧元区GDP在第一年可能下降0.3%；若欧盟采取对等反制措施，降幅将进一步扩大至0.5%。拉加德警告，贸易争端可能推高欧洲通胀，而欧洲央行将保持警惕，坚持2%的通胀目标。她坦言，“这是一场持久战”，货币政策需灵活应对数据变化。
面对美方施压，欧盟态度渐趋强硬。德国总理朔尔茨此前表示愿优先谈判，但若美方坚持加税，欧盟将“坚决回应”。欧盟委员会已拟定针对260亿欧元美国商品的对等关税清单，计划4月生效以争取谈判窗口。法国总统马克龙更直斥美方政策为“经济自残”，称欧盟将捍卫利益，不排除升级反制。
特朗普关税已引发连锁反应。3月27日，欧洲三大汽车巨头梅赛德斯-奔驰、宝马、大众股价集体下挫，美股通用、福特跌幅超3%。研究机构预测，若美欧互征25%关税，欧盟GDP或萎缩0.4%，美国亦难独善其身，经济或缩水0.17%。
拉加德强调，当前局势凸显欧洲需减少对外依赖，尤其是在关键产业领域。然而，短期阵痛难以避免：跨大西洋汽车供应链面临断裂风险，钢铝产能过剩或重演十年前油价崩盘危机。分析指出，若贸易战持续，欧洲央行可能加快降息步伐以稳定经济，但结构性改革仍是长期破局关键。
Lagarde Warns: "No Winners in Trade War," Trump Tariffs Spur Europe’s Push for "Economic Independence"
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sent a strong signal during an interview on France Inter radio today, warning that the new U.S. automotive tariffs set to take effect on April 3 under President Donald Trump will accelerate Europe’s march toward "economic independence." She stressed that this is a moment for Europe to "take control of our own destiny," adding that a trade war would only result in mutual damage.
Lagarde noted that the Trump administration’s recent imposition of 25% tariffs on critical industries, including automobiles, steel, and aluminum, is forcing Europe to rapidly build self-reliance in defense, energy, finance, and digital technology. She described this shift as a "European moment," arguing that the tariff dispute has served as a wake-up call, heightening the urgency for European unity and strategic autonomy.
According to ECB estimates, the Eurozone’s GDP could decline by 0.3% in the first year if U.S. tariffs are implemented. Should the EU retaliate with equivalent measures, the contraction could widen to 0.5%. Lagarde cautioned that trade tensions risk fueling inflation in Europe, though the ECB remains committed to its 2% target. "This will be a protracted battle," she acknowledged, emphasizing that monetary policy must stay flexible and data-dependent.
Facing U.S. pressure, the EU has adopted an increasingly resolute stance. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously expressed openness to prioritizing negotiations but warned that the bloc would "respond decisively" if Washington insists on tariffs. The European Commission has drafted retaliatory tariffs targeting €26 billion of U.S. goods, slated for April implementation to create negotiating leverage. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned U.S. policies as "economic self-harm," vowing that the EU will defend its interests and escalate countermeasures if necessary.
Trump’s tariffs have already triggered market turmoil. On March 27, shares of Europe’s automotive giants—Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen—fell sharply, while U.S. automakers General Motors and Ford dropped over 3%. Research institutes predict that a 25% tariff exchange between the U.S. and EU could shrink the EU’s GDP by 0.4%, with the U.S. economy also contracting by 0.17%.
Lagarde underscored that the current crisis highlights Europe’s need to reduce external dependencies, particularly in strategic industries. However, short-term pain is inevitable: transatlantic automotive supply chains face fracture risks, while steel and aluminum overcapacity could mirror the oil price collapse crisis a decade ago. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions may push the ECB to accelerate interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy, but structural reforms remain key to long-term resilience.
